We opened the Ditsch Quantum Hybrid Program to client funds in February 2026 believing the setup ahead was going to be unusually complicated. It turned out to be more complicated than that.
Within weeks of launch, a Gulf war was rattling energy and fertilizer markets, USDA's Prospective Plantings report reshuffled the corn/soybean acreage story, and by early summer weather heats up as the crop was heading into its most weather-sensitive stretch. This chaotic environment is a good proving ground for the Ditsch Quantum Hybrid approach to trading.
01Four months, four shocks
The quick version of what our desk was trading through:
02What that looked like on a chart
December corn (CZ) and November soybeans (SX) spent February through June climbing on tight-supply and input-cost worry, topped out in early May, then gave a good chunk of it back into the June acreage report.
03Here Comes Summer
We're five months into a live track record and it's too early to draw firm conclusions on our human-machine hybrid approach.
What we can say is that this program launched into a challenging environment. We saw corn swing from $4.50 to $5.05 and down to $4.30, while soybeans have gyrated wildly between $11 and $12. Navigating that meant using both our human insights on broader global perspectives, and a model that makes calculated calls from the data patterns it uncovers.
04June in detail
Mark Ditsch — Portfolio Manager, Ditsch Quantum Hybrid Program
Agricultural markets broke sharply during the first few days of June. It was a move we had been anticipating for several weeks. It took longer to unfold than expected, but when it finally arrived, it happened quickly.
By late May, our quantitative models and supply/demand analysis were in unusually strong agreement. Our models highlighted several bearish factors, including significant managed money length across agricultural markets, favorable weather trends, and weakening fundamental signals. At the same time, our discretionary analysis pointed in the same direction. With both approaches aligned, we increased our short exposure.
That positioning proved beneficial. One trend we've noticed in recent years is that markets often spend weeks or months moving sideways — or even against the underlying fundamentals — before repricing rapidly once sentiment shifts. That was exactly the pattern in early June. Much of the decline occurred in less than a week. When opportunities like that present themselves, it's important to be positioned before the move begins rather than trying to chase it afterward.
Following the selloff, markets stabilized through the second half of June and into early July. The outlook today is less clear than it was a month ago. Both our models and our fundamental work are seeing more mixed signals. Our overall bias remains modestly bearish, but conviction is lower than it was when prices were considerably higher. Simply put, today's reward for taking additional risk is not as attractive.
That doesn't mean we stop trading. It means we adjust position size to reflect the changing environment while remaining patient for the next higher-conviction opportunity.
The June 30 USDA Stocks and Acreage reports provided a mixed picture. Corn and wheat received somewhat supportive news, while soybeans were closer to neutral. After the sharp declines in June, all three markets responded with a modest recovery.
Attention has also shifted toward Chinese soybean demand. Recent rumors suggest China could purchase roughly 12 MMT of US soybeans before January 1, although no one knows whether those purchases will ultimately materialize. Markets will continue to weigh those demand prospects against what currently appears to be a generally favorable US growing season.
Weather now becomes the dominant variable. While temperatures have turned quite warm across much of the Corn Belt, abundant rainfall has largely offset the stress. Overall, crop conditions remain favorable, but the next two months represent the most important period of the growing season. That is when weather has the greatest ability to alter production expectations.
Absent a meaningful weather problem, I continue to believe soybean prices have room to work lower into late summer. Corn is a more balanced market, as prices are already relatively inexpensive and export demand appears healthier than it does for soybeans.
Key Takeaway: Our focus now shifts toward the two variables most likely to determine market direction over the next several months: US weather and new-crop demand. While conditions can change quickly during the growing season, the current balance of evidence still makes it difficult to build a compelling bullish case. As always, we'll continue letting both our quantitative models and our supply/demand analysis determine when to increase or reduce risk.